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Fourth Party Prospects for Victory

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Third party candidacies are generally a waste of time, but this year a fourth party candidacy could capture the White House.

Here’s how it might work: with Democrats deeply divided, the Bernie brigades might walk out of the convention, with Senator Sanders or someone from his camp running as the Green Party nominee. That would create an opening for an independent conservative candidate—like Senator Ben Sasse, or Condoleezza Rice, or Mitt Romney. With four November contenders each likely to draw at least 20% of the popular vote, a candidate could win with just 30%. And with four candidates sharing debate stages, and each carrying a few states, chances are good that there’d be no Electoral College majority—sending the decision to the House of Representatives, where mainstream conservatives predominate.

Best of all, with four candidates, voters could choose a leader they like, rather than voting for Trump out of hatred for Clinton, or backing Clinton because of fear of Trump.

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