No Plausible Path to Victory

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Public-opinion polls show Hillary Clinton consistently crushing Donald Trump in trial-heats but some Trump true-believers insist he could somehow still win.

In Politico, computer modeling showed he’d first need to double the percentage of black voters won by Mitt Romney – which might be possible without Obama on the ballot. Second, he’d need to do at least as well as Romney with Hispanics, avoiding the surge of angry Latinos expected to turn out against him. And finally, he’d need to win 64% of all of voters who identify as white—an all-but-impossible goal. Half of all white voters are college graduates, and more than half are women – members of two big groups in which Trump’s been profoundly unpopular in the primaries, never approaching majorities, let alone 64%.

The odds against Trump turning this around are overwhelming – the public already knows him very well and nearly two thirds say they could never vote for him.

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Comments (14)

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  1. Nani  •  Apr 1, 2016 at 4:42 pm

    But will Cruz or anyone else blow up the party of Republicans? Will anyone other than Trump paint conservatives as racist, sexist, bullying, sanctimonious and angry? Will anyone other than Trump guarantee a Democratic win, the lost of Congress and stack the SCOTUS with liberal activist judges? Will anyone other than Trump give all power to one party for a generation as the GOP and conservatives are liken to KKK?

    Of course not. The most important issue for Trump supporters is to DESTROY the party of Republicans. If they really felt betrayed and lied to; abused and taken advantaged of, they'd simply leave.

    In the end, those of us, tired of the sanctimonious tantrum are leaving. It's time. This is not a group of people any sane and civil and moral person want to be around.

    • Rizzo  •  Apr 2, 2016 at 7:36 am

      Thank you…. The actual people who seek to DESTROY the party are people like you Nani.
      And, as you have suggested, anyone who seeks to destroy the party should simply leave.
      We, REAL REPUBLICANS, are tired of your sanctimonious tantrums. And, as you have also indicated, you are leaving.
      Go join the REAL PARTY OF THE KKK… The Democrats. Perhaps you will have less to throw tantrums about.

  2. Timothy Hadley  •  Apr 1, 2016 at 4:55 pm

    Those polls are manipulated by left-wing liars who are using stats to control public opinion. You yourself said, those are "trial heats," not the real thing. Polls showed Dewey crushing Truman, too. HRC will never become president. Trust me.

    • Mark  •  Apr 6, 2016 at 11:37 am

      She will if we nominate Trump.

      • Nani  •  Apr 6, 2016 at 1:27 pm

        Isn't it funny that the Democrats knew that the only way that Hillary could win is if someone so horrible (Trump) was the GOP nominee and the only way that Republicans would back Cruz is if Trump looked like he might be the nominee?

        Trump: the candidacy BOTH liberals and conservatives NEEDED so that their flawed candidate could win. It is becoming more and more apparent how alike the hard left and hard right are.

      • Rizzo  •  Apr 11, 2016 at 4:26 pm

        Nani…. Who is your perfect candidate?
        Who would Emporer Nani put in place for our nominee?
        So much for the will of the people and the consent of the governed. Nani will tell us all what is best for us.
        What a friggin' joke you are!

  3. David House  •  Apr 1, 2016 at 6:54 pm

    Michael: You grind on the crazy man too much… Let's say that Hillary is not completely blown out by the FBI/DOJ – not at all a certainty, regardless of the guessing by y'all in the punditry. Trump, if the candidate, will provide a Conservative-side roasting of the old queen that will make Trey Gowdy's effort look like jr high warmups…
    Never mind that Trump is not very Conservative: if he actually gets to 1237, wins the candidacy, becomes the nominee [think for just a minute what an angry Donald would do to a little weiner like Preibus… 🙂 ]
    And if Hillary's 5-7 clear, already evident Federal felonies are dropped on her by end of May, not even the Democrats are going to bet she'll survive…
    Barry and the girls will come out with Jumpin' Joe, jam him in, tell Bernie to go burn, and provide the easiest target in the world for almost anyone…
    Then this arithmetic you keep quoting will change from July to November into a 15-point win, since the drumbeat will be that we CANNOT let a Dem pick the next 1-2-3 SCOTUS justices… 🙂

  4. mar  •  Apr 1, 2016 at 9:30 pm

    medved is a PEICE OF SHIT

    • Jim Bird  •  Apr 1, 2016 at 10:08 pm

      Are you thinking of Reince? There's a real piece of work!

  5. Conrad  •  Apr 8, 2016 at 8:58 pm

    We had two intelligent and articulate candidates. Fox torpedoed both with their bias toward Trump. What a dream ticket. Marco and Carli!!!

  6. Joel  •  Apr 8, 2016 at 9:37 pm

    Give the Anti-Trump tantrums a rest. Let the people speak, Michael. Further, Ronald Reagan was WAY behind Jimmy Carter, further than Trump is to Clinton, before the general. We saw how that turned out. The GOP has splintered because of crybabies like you and your ilk in conservative punditry, who for the first time are not getting your way. Ted Cruz speaking is like nails on the chalkboard to me, but unlike you crybabies, I will vote for him if he beats my candidate Trump and wins the nomination. If your Establishment buddies pull shenanigans, though, …

  7. jeb  •  Apr 11, 2016 at 2:58 am

    So the Republicans are representing we the people??? If Donald Trump is not the next president of the U.S. the world will know our votes mean nothing and the New World Order is upon us. Hillary should be indicted.

    • Jason  •  Apr 13, 2016 at 12:07 am

      If Donald Trump is the Republican nominee let alone president, the world will know that a sizable percentage of the American people are dolts.

      • Rizzo  •  May 24, 2016 at 10:41 am

        Too late…. Americans elected Obama…. Twice.

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