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Too Early for Predictions, But….

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Chris Matthews has already declared a winner in the fight for the GOP presidential nomination, announcing: “I predict the hard right is going to take over the Republican Party in 2016 and that the nomination is going to Rand Paul.” This ignores history: since the birth of the GOP, Republicans nominated candidates from the party’s broad center 36 of 39 times, choosing ideological nominees identified with the right only once with Goldwater and twice with Reagan.

Moreover, 2016 will likely follow recent patterns with multiple right-leaning candidates like Senators Paul, Cruz, Santorum, and Rubio dividing the most conservative votes while a single centrist like Governor Christie has moderate voters to himself. Conceivably, Congressman Paul Ryan could slip in between Christie and more conservative contenders, capturing the party’s mainstream and making him a far more likely nominee than Rand Paul.

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Comments (9)

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  1. JGUY  •  Aug 23, 2013 at 3:26 am

    Michael, your analysis points to Christie who would be the only one to have a chance at
    being elected….BUT…if Secretary Clinton is the nominee the odds of her victory are
    overwhelming since Americans love a “first”. Bill will be right beside her performing his
    amazing verbal magic act. Good or Bad… will be an amazing political show for those
    of us who love the national repeating drama. Love the show…

  2. Dave  •  Aug 23, 2013 at 1:16 pm

    Ted Cruz, yes. Rand Paul, yes. I don’t trust Rubio after Immigration, Christie= RINO who won’t support the Constitution or the 2nd Amendment!
    Ms……Clinton is not the contender all you RINO’s think she is.

    • JGUY  •  Aug 28, 2013 at 9:16 am

      Dave….yes she is because a coalition of what is commonly and incorrectly called “minoritiy”
      will elect her. The massive amount of single mothers and other women who will march to
      the polls to vote for her —independent of any other argument….will be breathtaking. Sit
      back and watch…..
      Plus she is also viewed as a “victim” after the Bill affair, the Obama loss, and even her
      record as Sec of State – these will all come into play to make her the overcoming victim
      and superwoman….. AMERICANS LOVE TO HELP A VICTIM….it will be an amazing dance.

  3. HorizonScanner  •  Aug 24, 2013 at 3:29 am

    Mr. Medved believed that comprensive immigration reform was a done deal several years ago. He was wrong then and is wrong presently. Crisis greater than the late 60’s will have engulfed the country by election time for president. He with the clearest Churchilian gravitas and grasp of judicial and constitutional procedure (mark my words, Mr. Medved) will ascend to the presidency. Who might that be? Won’t be Rand and won’t be Mr. New Jersey.

  4. Andrew  •  Aug 24, 2013 at 10:26 am

    Chris Matthews is an idiot. Period.

  5. George Pendergraft  •  Aug 24, 2013 at 6:40 pm

    I believe that the republicans are wimps and that until we get a real conservative in the whitehouse House and Senate, we are going to be like we are now, do nothings.
    Immigration, send the illegals home.
    Obama care – deny funding and when we get control again repeal it.
    Egypt, do not support the Brotherhood.
    Global warming, it is a farse and we should reverse any laws that support it.
    Drilling for oil, Do it now and build more refineries so we don’t have price increases when a refinery is shut down for repairs or due to a fire.
    Obama. get him out of office because he alone is destroying the country’s constitution and laws little by little even though it doesn’t look like it.
    Budget, Cut it. A government shutdown would do the country good.
    Tax reform. I used to think that the Fair Tax was a good thing until I realized I was approaching retirement. Now I think it is a bad thing, and will put a larger burden on the eldery and less of a burden on regular income tax payers. Why should a person on a fixed income pay more taxes after he or she is retired, than when he or she does as an income tax payer? I.E. most things new that he or she buys will be taxed to the elderly as well as the prior income tax participant.
    Maybe more later.

  6. Jeff Antes  •  Aug 24, 2013 at 9:23 pm

    This country is mayby on the wrong side of politics ,but who knows mayby wakeing up

    (small perspective from smal town of Big Bear City CAL

  7. Robert Taylor  •  Aug 25, 2013 at 10:54 am

    I agree with Matthews (just this one time) that it will be Rand Paul and will hazard a guess vs. Andrew Cuomo. Hillary will withdraw after scandals and apathy (outside the media) make it impossible for her to continue her campaign. Christie has ticked-off too man Republicans and it won’t be forgotten.

  8. Cookie Coachman  •  Aug 26, 2013 at 12:20 pm

    Mr. Medved,

    It seems that Senator Cruz may be interested in being nominated for the 2016 Republican Presidential candidacy. Would Senator Cruz be eligible to run for President since he was born in Canada?
    I know he is a U.S. citizen, but doesn’t the Constitution require U. S. Presidents to be actually born in the United States? I do not think acquiring U.S. citizenship by merely being the child of a U.S. citizen is enough to qualify for the Presidential nomination.

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