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Trump’s Path to Victory: Tough, Not Impossible

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Donald Trump speaks to the Trask Coliseum at University of North Carolina in Wilmington, North Carolina. REUTERS/Eric Thayer

Commentators in the mainstream media want to suggest that the presidential race is already over – with a lopsided Clinton win all but assured. If Trump supporters believe their cause is lost, they may stay home–damaging Republicans up and down the ticket.

But the truth is that Trump still has a path to Electoral College victory. The polls give disproportionate weight to states like California and New York where Hillary IS far ahead, but swing states–where it’s close–will decide the outcome.

It doesn’t matter if Clinton wins New York three to one, as long as she loses Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump must successfully defend three Romney states where the polling is tight–North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. But if he does that, and ekes out victories in the three big “swingers”, he’ll be president.

The outcome will depend on Trump delivering a substantive, dignified, credible performance in televised debates.

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  1. SincereTexican  •  Aug 11, 2016 at 8:13 pm

    Trump has to win. The Bill of Rights is at stake.

    • Joe  •  Aug 28, 2016 at 3:26 am

      Yes.

    • Joe  •  Aug 28, 2016 at 3:26 am

      Indirectly, but yes.

  2. Nani  •  Aug 11, 2016 at 10:08 pm

    Seriously, do you really believe if you were Hispanic, Black, a female, a vet. Any of the dozens of groups that Trump has shown no respect for, you'd actually vote for Trump? Hillary may be a lot of things, but crazy isn't one of them. Trump is certifiable and the idea of him having the nuke codes is more than terrifying. To those who claim to need Trump to protect the Bill of Rights, 2nd amendment etc. You're talking about a guy who questions the Bill of Rights (the 14th amendment and any part of the constitution that doesn't help him or make him look good). You can deny all you want, but the guy is, absolutely certifiable.There comes a time when people have to ask if they love America MORE than they hate Hillary. It really comes down to that.

    • J_Pole  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 1:19 pm

      Totally agree, Nani!

    • Brad  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 7:06 pm

      Trump with Nuke codes or Iran with nukes, what's more terrifying? Iran has pledged to wipe out Israel and is the largest government sponsor of terrorism. Hillary has praised the Iran deal that will eventually put a nuke in Iran's hands. What will they do with it, use it like they promised or just use it for extortion and blackmail (like the recent cash payments to Iran show they are happy to do). They'll probably do both. They called Reagan a "cowboy" and said he was going to get us killed. His resolve won the cold war.

    • Carmen grosse  •  Aug 13, 2016 at 9:16 pm

      Yes,so true.this man has said horrible things about our country.If any liberals had said them we conservatives would be foaming at the mouth which shows to me that Trump supporters are not thinking straight by supporting this horrible person

    • Jeff Anderson  •  Aug 15, 2016 at 1:18 am

      Trump is an liberal who will never appoint a conservative justice. His crazy immature demeanor makes him unfit to be dogcatcher. Hilary is an evil thief and a lier. But Trump is an evil thief and lier who is insane.

    • Nathan Steeves  •  Aug 25, 2016 at 3:09 pm

      I am a vet, I know many Hispanics and women who have told me that they are voting for Trump. I know that a lot of people feel uncomfortable expressing support for Trump because Trump supporters get called Racist, Sexist, stupid, etc. Trump is going to win because people are tired of people like Nani beating them with the, "race," card. I served under William Jefferson Clinton. He came to visit us in the Persian Gulf. They asked for 50 volunteers to go meet the President and shake his hand for the cameras… They had to order 50 servicemen to go shake his hand. That's right, not one man or woman out of 1,800 wanted to shake the President's hand. White, Black, Hispanic, and for the first time Women Sailors and Marines and we were united in our disdain for President Clinton. Now you want to assert that we would not vote for any individual beside Hillary Clinton? I don't think you know many vets…

  3. John  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 12:09 pm

    "The outcome will depend on Trump delivering a substantive, dignified, credible performance in televised debates." Wow. I guess it is hopeless.

    • J_Pole  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 1:18 pm

      When has Trump ever been substantive, dignified, or credible? Also, debating Hillary will require him to be informed on several issues. Won't happen.

  4. Gregolis  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 5:30 pm

    I can't listen to the show anymore. Has Michael completely lost it? He does remember calling Trump a "pathetic weasel" right?

    • S johnson  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 7:48 pm

      Medved has become the pied piper and all who still think he is a conservitve have had the kool aid.i would like for him to start answering these postings but I guess he likes to just chum the water then watch from afar,I am sure he has heard it all from those who call him everything under the sun but I say he is a coward and has hurt the GOP over the years more than anyone.he does not honor the constitution and does nothing to up hold the law. There are those who like Micheal under mind what the founding fathers meant for this country to be.he is the US version of Pravda.anyone who believes what he says needs to wake up as you have been duped

    • J_Pole  •  Aug 15, 2016 at 2:03 pm

      The issue that Medved has to deal with now is the growing recognition that it is him, along with all of his AM radio brethren, who has delivered not only Trump to us and the foam=at=the=mouth, pitchfork-bearing citizenry to Trump. I saw it happen to my brother in law, who became so consumed with FOC news and AM propganda jockeys that his wife almost left him.

      Hate, bigotry and rage are so delicious, aren't they? Just so cathartic!! And the moral outrage of victimhood can fuel many a fire.

      • J_Pole  •  Aug 15, 2016 at 2:05 pm

        correction: who have delivered

      • Henry  •  Aug 15, 2016 at 4:40 pm

        Truly, J_Pole, you couldn’t be more wrong or unfair. Radio hosts such as Medved and Plager did nothing to foment such nonsense. Indeed, I know of no conservative commentator that promoted (read, ‘delivered to us’) Trump. The two coming closest were Limbaugh and Hannity: Neither ‘promoted’ Trump, but yes they were quick to ‘recognize' that he touched a chord with the American citizenry and they basically saw this as a more hopeful option than another Romney who would surely keel over against the left’s propaganda, hatred, and anger sure to once again be their tactic. All of the ‘foam-at-the-mouth’ fervor arose directly from Trump himself, an idiot that no conservative talk host deserved or promoted. Had this buffoon not said so many stupid things, he could have carried the election with his attention to political correctness alone, … or Hillary’s incompetence alone, … or illegal immigration alone, … or our failures against ISIS alone, … or, … well … I think you get the point!

        The only problem Medved has is that he portrays the sentiment that he adamantly does not want Trump to become president. Sadly, Trump will not step aside. So Medved is going to have to realize that for Trump to lose is for Hillary to win. If Medved wants that, then HE should step down from being a conservative commentator.

    • Joe  •  Aug 28, 2016 at 3:25 am

      Gregolis, two replies:

      How on earth this inconsistent with Michael's earlier opposition of Trump?

      1. He's talking about an upside of the Trump candidacy, namely, that it could have the side-effect of improving the odds of good Senators being elected in states where they currently seem to have a low chance of winning.

      2. Calling Trump that was earlier in the presidential race. Your attitude toward a person can change. And especially, it can change when you're down to a two-horse race and your horse isn't in the running anymore. That's a perfectly rational thing to do.

  5. Robin Rosenblatt  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 7:17 pm

    I pray Trump wins we need him to help get the Muslim Brotherhood out of our Government.

    • Louis, Louis  •  Aug 13, 2016 at 2:32 am

      If he did,he was right on.

    • J_Pole  •  Aug 15, 2016 at 2:28 pm

      Robin, you are the audience I was talking about.

  6. S johnson  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 7:33 pm

    Nani ….are you serious, you would vote for someone who is a proven criminal and a liar.this women has committed treason on several accounts. Not to mention the odd dead people who show up shortly after they try to go against her.
    Of course the polls we hear about are leaning towards Hillary , when more Hillary supporters are asked over Trump supporters you will get an UN balanced result.
    As.for a Trump the media and the establishment GOP don't want him to win so they make things up to get people to think he has no chance so you will stay home like Medved who is part of the problem. Don't listen to him, he wants Hillary and her sharia law .
    I get my news from other sources that tell you the truth.

  7. Bette  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 7:34 pm

    Mr. Medved – It would be good for our country if some of you Talk Show folks, who really are so up on current events, would counsel Mr. Trump. A leader needs good people around him. Our country is at stake. He dares to slay the Political Correctness that is keeping the 1st world in bondage. He dares to name the truth about ISIS, Islam, Hilary, immigration run amok.

    • Louis, Louis  •  Aug 13, 2016 at 2:35 am

      No, he doesn't, Betty. You are confusing your wishes with realities

      • Joe  •  Aug 28, 2016 at 3:21 am

        Louis, Louis, you're confusing reality with your falsehoods. He's by no means the perfect candidate. But with Hillary, we have a guaranteed loss of the Supreme Court for a generation. Given our increasingly Leftist political climate, that would not bode well for the future of America. With Trump, we have at least a shot of retaining impartial judges.

  8. Benton  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 9:42 pm

    There are some resources that can be used by those who do care to seek the truth or you can be guided by subjective and emotional thought. I suggest subscribing to DickMorris.com since Dick Morris worked directly with the Clintons for 20 years. He does know the nature of the beast. On Breitbart there is a link to the video Clinton Cash http://www.breitbart.com/clinton-cash-movie/
    This video is free. Dinesh Sousa has a movie on the big screen- Clinton's America. Being 70 years old, I have seen the rapid deterioration of this country. My longevity is at the maximum another 25 years but my concern is for my grandchildren and their children to come. If the tide is not turned, they will not have the freedoms that we presently possess. If you do not care about yourselves, then care about your future children. People have had to take a stand in order to have freedom and liberty. There is a cost for freedom and liberty. If those who do not wish to pay the great price, the they surely will live a life on bondage to the state. I teach in a college university setting and my students are mostly minority adults. They sense what is at stake. If you listen to the media, they will tell you the fight is over and the media wishes you to believe the media is fair and correct. This is lyrics from the Man of LaMancha, a musical about Don Quixote the hero in Cervantes' novel. Cervantes had to survive imprisonment and torture at the hands of the Barbary Pirates before he was freed. Here are the lyrics:
    To dream … the impossible dream …
    To fight … the unbeatable foe …
    To bear … with unbearable sorrow …
    To run … where the brave dare not go …
    To right … the unrightable wrong …
    To love … pure and chaste from afar …
    To try … when your arms are too weary …
    To reach … the unreachable star …
    This is my quest, to follow that star …
    No matter how hopeless, no matter how far …
    To fight for the right, without question or pause …
    To be willing to march into Hell, for a Heavenly cause …
    And I know if I'll only be true, to this glorious quest,
    That my heart will lie will lie peaceful and calm,
    when I'm laid to my rest …
    And the world will be better for this:
    That one man, scorned and covered with scars,
    Still strove, with his last ounce of courage,
    To reach … the unreachable star …

    • S Johnson  •  Aug 12, 2016 at 11:05 pm

      There are some other sources to look at,Roger Stone at The stone zone and look up in the archives of infowars for Larry Nichole's who has some real good stuff on the goings on

      • Gerry  •  Aug 13, 2016 at 1:58 am

        Good evening posters – Nani, in particular.
        Yes, it is a wild political season and I find myself learning a great deal….which is good. I align with conservatives, although I am an imperfect example. At times my inability to walk the center of the party line has drawn praise and sometimes not. Nevertheless, I endeavor to be genuine and authentic….in my imperfect way. This, among other things, is what draws me into the Trump circle. Through Donald's failings as a polished insider politician, I see someone genuine and authentic. That is so refreshing after being fed the Clintons and the Obamas for so long. Example: During the primaries Donald shocked the "Chablis and Bree" wing with his bombast of Lyin' Ted and Little Marco. Hey, that's just how guys talk or the construction site, on the boats, on the docks or having a cold one after work. It is Americana comraderie. Interesting that none of the other candidates new how to hand the barrage right back at him. I suspect their button down collars have been a bit too tight for a bit too long. Other things, too. In any event, before you wright off Trump……2 requests from a total stranger. 1. Read "Being There" by Gerzy Kosunski (Nat'l Book Award winner) and watch a 22 minute TED video. Google "TED talks, Monica Lewinski" or follow the link. The price of shame
        https://www.ted.com/talks/monica_lewinsky_the_price_of_shame?language=en&utm_source=tedcomshare&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=tedspread

        Regards
        Gerry

    • Louis, Louis  •  Aug 13, 2016 at 2:36 am

      Good God!

  9. Henry  •  Aug 13, 2016 at 1:25 pm

    Wow. Just read some of these posts. Almost irrational outpourings of emotion for a nation we love and are about to lose. Again I appeal to all, especially Michael, to listen to the very wise Dennis Prager who has it perfectly correct: The election is not between Hillary and Donald. It is between the left and the greatest nation on God’s green earth. Yes, it is sad and pathetic that the standing representative of the latter is a seemingly insensitive buffoon. But he is not corrupt, not a pathological liar, and not a proven incompetent. And, most importantly, he will not surround himself with the lunatic left. Unless Donald can be talked into stepping down, a vote not for him will be a vote against the USA.

    • J_Pole  •  Aug 15, 2016 at 4:50 pm

      Henry, thought you might like a reality check, if only partial:

      " I never heard of David Duke
      "Hundreds of thousands of illegal Mexicans swarm across our borders every day"
      "This is John Miller and I'm going to tell you the real story about Marla Maples"
      "Tht isn't me on those tapes"
      "Crime rates in America are soaring every year"
      "*I am the author of "The Art of the Deal ""
      "The Federal Government won't let me release my tax returns because I'm being audited"
      "I saw hundreds and thousands of Muslims partying and cheering from the rooftops on 9/11"
      That's a sherriff's star"
      "The Koch Brothers called and begged for a meeting but I turned them down"
      "Putin will never set foot in Ukraine"
      "The NFL is complaining to me about the debate schedule"

      • Henry  •  Aug 15, 2016 at 10:53 pm

        Fair enough. Perhaps he is a pathological liar. (Though a lot of these ‘lies’ are pretty innocuous, they might just be prerequisite for being a politician.) I cannot defend Thump, … about almost anything. Still, his entourage would be better than Hillary’s, and so will his Supreme Court appointment(s).

    • Jeff Anderson  •  Aug 16, 2016 at 3:17 am

      Trump is more corrupr then Hillary. He asbandoned two wives and has bragged about all married women that he has had affairs with. He is about as worthless and morally bankrupt as a person can be.

      • Joe  •  Aug 28, 2016 at 3:15 am

        Still, at the end of the day, you're going to have to live with one of these two people being President. Better to not waste a chance at getting good Supreme Court justices out of the deal. You gotta ask yourself this: if it's election night, and it's neck and neck, who will you be pulling for in your gut? If you have an answer, that's how you should vote. For me, that's Trump.

    • Joe  •  Aug 28, 2016 at 2:58 am

      Well said.

  10. Julia  •  Aug 16, 2016 at 1:51 am

    Anything can still happen. This is no love story for either candidate but even if Trump can stay on message (??) for the next ninety days, he's left a year-long record that cannot be ignored. Good Republicans should not be made to suffer.

  11. Julia  •  Aug 16, 2016 at 2:03 am

    Not to pile on Prager – I used to enjoy listening to him – but he can't go five minutes without blaming something bad on "liberals". At least Medved is even-handed and clear-eyed. Honestly, how is this country ever going to get anything accomplished when the far right and the far left throw darts at each other – forcing "purity" within their parties (sign a no new taxes pledge? promise to support the republican candidate no matter how vile he turns out to be?) and anyone who is willing to work with the other side is a traitor? Stop only listening to your echo chamber and read and listen to a wide variety of smart and accomplished thinkers – the more well versed and intelligent we are, the better we can make decisions to help our country.

    • Joe  •  Aug 28, 2016 at 3:07 am

      Julia, it's not about Right and Left; it's about right and wrong. And it just so happens the Left believes mostly wrong (and false) things about the most important issues, and the Right believes mostly right (and true) things about the most important issues. The choice this election is now down to (1) a candidate on the Left, who, by definition, and also by going on the record, believes mostly wrong (and false) things about the most important issues over which she will have influence–and (2) a candidate who is less on the Left, who, as far as we can tell, believes many of the right things about the right issues. This is a sufficient condition to motivate voting candidate 2. I.e. Trump.

      The echo chamber comment cuts both directions–anyone on either side of the aisle can be guilty of being unreflective or not being willing to get all the facts. My experience is that talk radio listeners are far more reflective, thoughtful, informed, charitable, and open-minded than some give them credit for–and certainly moreso than the average Progressive. In any case, what matters most is that we have good reasons for voting for the candidate for whom we vote.

  12. R.S.  •  Aug 23, 2016 at 2:38 pm

    Occasionally I catch Dennis Prager before this show. Dennis is a likable guy, but the best part of the show is the personal relationship stuff. He's not as well-informed as some seem to think. When the Democrats used the "nuclear option" to end the filibustering of many judicial appointments, he claimed it was unconstitutional; as Michael would have certainly known, the Senate can make whatever rules it wants about the filibuster, which is a maneuver created by a Senator and is not in the Constitution. Dennis also said he couldn't understand why silicon valley execs were complaining when it was revealed a while back that the U.S. gov't was putting devices in computers being shipped to Germany to spy on German corporations and gov't agencies — well, other countries won't buy our computers if they think our computers aren't secure! Dennis will be inveighing about evil somewhere (he rarely gets specific about what exactly the U.S. should do), then the bumper music rises to a menacing crescendo as the commercial break comes…..I call him "Dennis who is menaced". He IS painfully honest…..One time he admitted he couldn't find a good reason to defend that scripture in Joshua where God tells Joshua to kill all the men,women and children in the enemy land God said to conquer (today we call this genocide)…….you could feel his emotional pain. Not too long ago he came on Michael's show and had a weird discussion about female virgins in the Old testament being stoned to death…..he focused on whether a council of elders had been called to allow it. Well in Iran today a council decision is required to stone someone, but in Afghanistan an elder family male can do it on his own, a distinction without a moral difference. He also claimed that there is no historical record that the Hebrews stoned females for sexual sins….but there is a parable about Jesus in the New Testament about just that!

    Anyway, last week Dennis was complaining that Hillary was a congenital liar……well the problem is Trump is a pathological liar, lying far more often actually. Kellyanne Conway, his new babysitter, has been trying to give us a kindler, gentler Trump…….her specialty is women voters, she knows that suburban white women voters will not vote for someone who is perceived as a racist, that's why he is suddenly concerned about blacks. As for the Supreme Court, when this nasty campaign is over, if he somehow wins will have no good will from the other side (like Richard Nixon)…….any conservative nominee will be filibustered, we could see 4 years where the court remains a 4-4 court.

    • Joe  •  Aug 28, 2016 at 3:11 am

      The Supreme Court justice nominees present a sufficient reason to vote Trump over Hillary. With Trump we have a theoretical chance at getting good justices nominated (even if he is a liar–a claim for which I have some skepticism). But with Hillary, we're guaranteed to lose the Court for a generation. As a friend put it, with Trump you're playing Russian roulette; with Hillary, you're loading all six chambers and pulling the trigger.

  13. R.S.  •  Aug 23, 2016 at 3:36 pm

    correction: that should have read unmarried female NON-virgins being stoned to death

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