Who Voted and How Did Conservatives Split Their Votes:
From 1980 (Reagan's first victory) to 2008 (Obama's first--and we hope last--victory).

The figures gathered below contain several crucial revelations:

1- Republicans always win big majorities of self-described conservatives--even losing Republicans like Dole and McCain.
2- The ONLY Republicans who win are those who manage to split moderate voters. For instance, Ronald Reagan got 54% of the moderate vote in 1984 and earned a 49 state landslide. Meanwhile, even those Republican nominees who win big among "conservatives" don't necessarily win elections. McCain did better among self-described conservatives in 2008 (78%) than Reagan did in 1980 (73%), but he still lost the election. In fact, McCain beat Obama by 58 points among conservatives, but lost among moderates by 21 points, and so lost the election.

(Graph prepared by Karmen Frisvold)

2008
Pct. Voters McCain Obama
Conservative 34% 78% 20%
Moderate 44% 39% 60%
Liberal 22% 10% 89%






2004

Bush Kerry
Conservative 34% 84% 15%
Moderate 45% 45% 54%
Liberal 21% 13% 85%






2000

Bush Gore
Conservative 29% 82% 17%
Moderate 50% 45% 53%
Liberal 20% 13% 81%






1996

Dole Clinton
Conservative 34% 72% 20%
Moderate 47% 33% 57%
Liberal 19% 12% 81%






1992

Bush Sr. Clinton Perot
Conservative 30% 64% 18% 18%
Moderate 49% 31% 48% 21%
Liberal 21% 14% 68% 18%






1988

Bush Sr.  Dukakis
Conservative 33% 81% 19%
Moderate 45% 49% 51%
Liberal 18% 18% 82%






1984

Reagan Mondale
Conservative 33% 82% 18%
Moderate 42% 54% 46%
Liberal 16% 29% 71%






1980

Reagan Carter Anderson
Conservative 28% 73% 23% 4%
Moderate 46% 49% 43% 8%
Liberal 17% 28% 60% 12%